Sunday, February 7, 2016

New Hampshire Picks

Basically I believe the Pachyderm race is too close to call.  Trump will win but under perform expectations.  Rubio will continue to surge.  Cruz will rise again in the southern primaries in March unless Trump can add on the ground organization to his rhetoric.  Rubio will play among those more moderate Republicans in blue states: the Northeast, West Coast, and the blue and purple states of the Midwest.

Is a hung convention possible on the Republican side?  I suppose so, but my own perspective is clouded by the fact that I want it to be a hung convention and my mother taught me to tread carefully regarding those things I want believe.
Sanders will win the Donk contest in New Hampshire though I think it will be his high water mark.  I don't see him getting the same level of support in South Carolina, Nevada, or the Super Tuesday states.  He won't endorse Clinton and I don't think his supporters will reconcile themselves to the idea of another eight years of Clinton dominance of the party apparatus.
I do think the Clinton campaign will implode due to a combination of the e-mail scandal, the progressive revolt with in the Donk coalition, and the fact that the candidate has never won a contested election.  She is not a proven candidate.  All she proves is how deeply the Clintons used their influence within the Democratic Party to stack the deck in her favor within the bureaucracy of that party.  She is the establishment.

Biden still waits to ride in as a white knight.  First to save the party of Jefferson and then the nation from the Pachyderms who seem dead set on running a campaign based upon bringing back waterboarding.  I think President Obama wants him as a successor.  I think the party as a whole would prefer him as a standard bearer.  My pick of Bloomberg anticipates an attempt to harness the outsider mystique which seems to have seized the nation.  They might even both pledge to only serve one term, promising all members of the Democratic coalition an opportunity to begin jockeying for 2020.

That might be enough to unify the party for a 2016 win.

Rumors point to a Biden/Warren ticket.  That too is possible, but I don't want it.  ;)

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