Friday, January 29, 2016

Iowa Picks

Some people play fantasy football.  Others obsess over their NCAA basketball brackets.

I am into horse racing, electoral horse racing to be specific and this is my prediction for the 2016 Iowa Caucuses.

Trump's support is drawn from people who are not likely caucus participants.  Those that do show up will, through the caucus process, I suspect, be folded into the Cruz supporters during the course of the meeting.  I have Rubio in second but, frankly, Bush and Rubio could switch places in my standings.  I only chose Rubio on the hunch that Iowa, too, is tired of the Bush family.  I doubt Rubio  makes it out of South Carolina but, hey, one race at a time.

Rand Paul's supporters will not easily fold into any other group so he hits above his weight in Iowa, I suspect he'll do well again in New Hampshire before fading the night of Super Tuesday.

Team Donk is less complicated.  I have Clinton over Sanders: pragmatism over idealism.  Now if Hillary is indicted this weekend, well, that could change.  O'Malley is praying for a change.

Edit: Apparently when I was writing out my picks last night, I forgot how to spell "O'Malley" and "Caucus."

1 comment:

  1. Trump / Bernie for the wins. :)

    But we'll see.